Zhou Xiaochuan: The overall effect of the policy response to the epidemic is good, and financial services need to be more grounded

Zhou Xiaochuan: The overall effect of the policy response to the epidemic is good, and financial services need to be more grounded
At the 2020 Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Finance Forum on May 16, Zhou Xiaochuan, president of the Chinese Finance Association and honorary dean of the Wudaokou School of Finance at Tsinghua University, said that the new crown epidemic was mainly an impact on small and medium-sized enterprises, resulting in unemployment and other impacts.In the past, there was not much preparation for thinking and research in the construction of financial institutions and financial systems. The replacement mechanism was not effective enough, and the implementation mechanism was lacking.He said that the epidemic is a very big challenge. How to make the financial markets and the financial industry provide more grounded financial services requires a better connection with fiscal policies. After all, the problems caused by the epidemic include, in addition to total demand and supply chain,The need for rescue functions.He suggested that there must be a clear-cut mechanism design that can be implemented to the grassroots level, and financial institutions should also strengthen their emergency functions.In addition, the clearer the risk-bearing mechanism, the more favorable the implementation. At the same time, there must be a good enough incentive mechanism to double-execute through a call or administrative order.Sauna, Ye Wang, Cheng Weimiao, editor Yue Caizhou and Mr. He Yanfu and Zhou Xiaochuan ‘s speech at the 2020 Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Finance Forum are very happy to participate in the Tsinghua Forum again. I also thank President Qiu Yong and Dean Zhang Xiaohui for their speeches.I hope that strengthening financial research will enable the financial system to overcome the targeted response to the new crown epidemic.In fact, I do n’t have much research, and I mainly hope to talk about it as an opening remark, hoping to arouse everyone ‘s understanding of the relevant challenges and research.First of all, it ‘s easy for me to talk about what Director Zhang Xiaoxiao said just now. China has issued quite a lot of policies related to macroeconomic policies and financial systems to deal with the epidemic. There have been many innovations in this area. Everyone has put in a lot of efforts and achieved quite good results.Results.The first is the timely and effective monetary policy on liquidity and price mechanism, some of which are policies to overcome the epidemic situation to boost total demand, and some are actually functions of bailout. It should be said that the overall effect is good.However, society ‘s expectations for the financial system are also relatively high. It is proposed that the monetary policy measures and mechanisms will be more effective, and the rescue of small and medium-sized enterprises and individuals affected by the epidemic will be more precise and targeted. At the same time, we must pay attention to saving ammunition and preventSubsequent anisotropy.We have also heard some opinions that need to be improved. Some said that some enterprises and individuals should be able to obtain financial support, but they did not get it, or that the amount they received was not enough; some also said that after seeing a part of the moneyAfter entering the asset market, this has also improved; again, there is also an observation that part of the funds have been idling between financial institutions, but are fully incorporated into the real economy. I think there are certain reasons for these statements, and it also shows that everyone hopes that the financial business community can play a greater role.Of course, there are also some concerns that loose liquidity may also have a certain replacement in the future. In addition, there may be a part of the “free ride” phenomenon, so that some enterprises and financial institutions originally have certain problems themselves.Has already surrounded the breakthrough, but they may also take the opportunity to say that it was caused by the new crown epidemic, so should they be rescued?This epidemic is a very big challenge. There is very little experience in history, but it does not mean that there is no reference material.I remember that during the “SARS” in 2003, we had similar financial policies and liquidity support, but we did see some undesirable phenomena happening, and one of them might enter the asset market.Therefore, in June 2003, the People’s Bank of China issued a “No. 121 Document”, mainly to appropriately restrict loans to the real estate market.At that time, there was a phenomenon called “fried property”, meaning that the building had not been capped yet, and it had been fired several times as a futures.In the fall of 2003, the People’s Bank of China increased its deposit reserve as a supplement, first of all, it also saw the credit expansion very fast.As of April 2004, there was criticism in the society that the expansion was too fast, which caused the supervisory agency at that time to temporarily freeze the final loan by the last week of April, causing some vibration in the society.In short, these are all within the scope that needs to be considered, and are the translations that we need to study.After all, the New Crown epidemic is different from the previous crises. The previous crises were often caused by economic factors to financial markets and financial institutions, causing problems for financial institutions and financial markets.This time it is mainly an impact on SMEs and an impact on employment. This phenomenon may be more obvious in some other countries.It should be said that our past financial institution and financial system construction and market-oriented reforms were aimed at the operation of the conventional economy, and also considered the situation of the financial crisis, but for the special situation of the new crown epidemic, we actually did not have much mental preparationAnd research preparation, resulting in the mechanism is not yet effective, the implementation mechanism is still lacking, so we may need to strengthen research in many ways.One of them is how to make financial markets and the financial industry more compatible with fiscal policies.Indeed, fiscal policy can play a role at this time, but we also know that the transformation mechanism of fiscal policy is not sufficiently effective and smooth. In the past, the main solution was to decompose the financial funds layer by layer. In the process, someInterception, embezzlement, and our existing financial institutions should be said to have close ties with the grassroots, so the concurrent and innovative ways that can be used to make the financial system better serve to overcome the epidemic.Of course, no matter whether it is a fiscal policy or a financial policy, it is impossible to be 100% effective. It is impossible to use 100% of the funds completely on the blade, and no interception or embezzlement will occur. This excessively high expectation value is unrealistic.In addition, we cannot reverse market-oriented reforms to advance relevant policies.In addition, we should also pay attention to whether financial institutions will have some problems in the quality of financial assets and the efficiency of financial markets in the process of supporting the overcoming of the new crown epidemic, so as to whether they will lead to the collapse of new financial markets and financial crises.This also requires the study of digits.We said that mechanism design and system reform are constantly being improved as we progress.According to past experience, in this case, we first need to have a clear mechanism design, so that the mechanism can be obtained and can be implemented to the grassroots level.Among them, some policies aimed at related industries that are particularly affected by the epidemic should also be further clarified and the crackdown on financial institutions can be implemented.In addition, in addition to the normal normal operating mechanism, financial institutions should also consider strengthening the emergency function so that they can promote the clarification of goals and principles during the emergency process, and thus in the process of responding to the new Crown epidemic.In addition, there must be a loss-taking mechanism.The clearer the loss-taking mechanism, the stronger the execution.In addition, a sufficiently good incentive mechanism should be designed. After all, after years of market-oriented reforms, the financial system is market-oriented and needs to be implemented through the financial incentive mechanism, but must overcome the call or administrative order.In addition, inspection and supervision mechanisms should also keep up.In general, we need financial services that are more grounded, that is, mechanisms that are more accessible to the policy formulation and implementation of the grassroots real economy, including the need to better integrate fiscal policies just mentioned. After all, becauseThe problems caused by the new crown epidemic, in addition to the total demand, supply chain and other issues, it also contains such a function that must be helped.It should be said that China and other countries have their own characteristics, that is, we established policy banks during the financial reform in the 1990s.Later, we divided the banking system into three areas, one is a policy bank, one is a development bank, and one is a commercial bank.In fact, what is a policy bank and what is a development bank are always controversial.Although it is said that we also issued documents in the past two years to make provisions, but this statement is not so convincing, and there is still a sense of “clamping raw rice”.Financial institutions have done a lot of work in the new crown epidemic, including extending loan terms, deferring interest payments, reducing debt, restructuring, reducing costs, etc. But we said that there are still many areas that need to be improved.From a financial point of view, if there is a policy demand, since China has a policy bank, or coupled with China Development Bank, it should be able to undertake some policy business to combat the epidemic.However, we recall that since the establishment of policy banks in the 1990s, including development banks that were later transformed, their functional designs were not designed in accordance with such emergency policy requirements, so they are divided by field.In order to prevent policy gaps from opening up, they are restricted to work in this area and allowed to expand.But in fact, this policy area does not have a clear boundary, and it has continuously evolved in the past 20 years of development, and some have become other content from the initial prediction to the present.Indeed, China ‘s policy banks and development banks are not particularly closely connected with the grassroots, and they have not been allowed to set up a large number of branches in the past. Therefore, if the outbreak is mainly due to the need to strengthen theIf supported, then our existing policy banks and development banks do not have the information advantage, and there are also problems in their implementation that may not be effective.In addition, the loss-bearing mechanism has never been thoroughly clarified.Nominally, policy business requires official approval from the government, and everything else can be understood as developmental business, but the government does not really take it for granted.In addition, their regulatory policies and principles are still not clear enough. At one time, some people supplemented the appropriate relaxation of regulatory standards. However, some problems and cases in the regulatory process have a “multiplier” with supervision and governance.The opportunity is relevant.However, we also have many innovative businesses appearing in policy institutions and development institutions, such as shantytown renovation, student loans, supporting related industries in the financial crisis, etc. Therefore, we say how to make good use of policy financial institutions and developmentSexual financial institutions are still an unfinished thesis.Mention student loans here. In the past, the method used by development banks was actually wholesale, not that it had no information advantages at the grassroots level, and had no traditions or specialties to merge into the grassroots level. But it can also be used as a wholesale agency.Do it.Finally, talk about commercial banks.The commercial banks have always been controversial.In the process of market transition, some temporary commercial banks are doing policy business, and restructuring policy business is in trouble. In addition, commercial banks have their own commercial interests, so they are worried about moral hazard.The burden is thrown to the government, saying that it is related to the government and the policy business.Of course, we believe that in fact, commercial financial institutions are not completely unable to implement policies. For example, in terms of financial policies, such as anti-money laundering, anti-terrorist financing, cash management, foreign exchange management, and some small and medium-sized financial institutionsThe problem requires other financial institutions to help supervise and rescue. These are actually policy-oriented content, and they are not completely consistent with the interests of commercial financial institutions, but if they are well designed, they areThe aspect can also be done well.So what we are better at is that, in an emergency, the first thing is to design the goals and principles and the scale of the policy more clearly, clearly, thoroughly, decomposed, and inspected and supervised.The second is to design an effective incentive mechanism, so that it can be better achieved through the market’s incentive mechanism.The third is the risk-bearing mechanism just mentioned, especially the ultimate loss-bearing mechanism.The final loss needs to be identified and there must be a clear commitment, including the need to have a bottom-up policy, so that the existing commercial financial institutions can have more clear policy guidelines in fighting the epidemic, so that they can playThe role of the role.Originally, I wanted to talk about the issue of overseas debt reduction, but I think it might be better for others to talk about it.In short, the new crown epidemic posed many challenges and many new papers. I hope that the Tsinghua University Wudaokou School of Finance, and even the entire financial community will take this opportunity to strengthen research work, analyze that we can make more improvements in certain areasMany reforms, armor will play a better role in future work, and in similar emergency situations that may occur in the future.Many of the opinions and suggestions I have spoken may not be mature for your reference.thank you all.■ Zhou Xiaochuan, President of China Finance Society, Honorary Dean of Wudaokou School of Finance, Tsinghua University